What to do? - In Three Years, the Internet Hits a Brick Wall  

Posted by M. Talha in

Unfortunately, neither IPv4 or IPv6 are incompatible, which means that any IPv4 device will have to be assigned an IPv6 number. IPv4 to IPv6 connections will either have to be translated or tunneled, like a VPN connection, via a router.

And that means that the IPv4-to-IPv6 transition will likely be anything but simple. "The response that the global Internet industry will undertake an overnight transition to use IPv6 is perhaps at one somewhat improbable end of a rather broad spectrum of possibilities here, if only from the consideration of the implausibility of such timing in a network of tis [sic] size," Huston wrote.

However, the transition will likely be easier for some countries than others. According to OECD data collected in March, Germany, Japan, France, and Australia lead in terms of the number of IPv6 domains actually deployed; the United States is thirteenth, with 0.62 percent of the overall domains. Japan already has several IPv6 networks already deployed. About half of the top-level domains are IPv6 enabled.

Several solutions have been suggested to increase the pool of IPv4 addresses, ranging from market-based allocation, which could increase the cost of registering a new domain and benefit enterprises at the expense of users; seeking out "expired" blocks of IP addresses registered by defunct companies; or "seizing" blocks that are held but not used.

The bad news is that one of the easiest ways to forestall the exhaustion of these IP addresses is already in wide use: network address translation. The premise of the IP protocol, and especially IPv6, was to give each device on the network its own IP address. A PC connected to a NAT router receives its own sub-address, forcing the router to manage the packets flowing in and out of it, and assigning each to the proper PC. But since the router is an intermediary that requires some intelligence, router makers have added firewalls to sniff the packets further, and try and prevent hackers from penetrating the home network.

To date, virtually no home router supports IPv6; typing in "IPv6" on Netgear's Web page, for example, returns no results. But replacing the manufacturer firmware with a third-party application like Tomato does allow a determined user to add IPv6 support, although in that case the router becomes a bridge.

However, both Windows Vista and Windows Server 2003 both support IPv6 to some extent. By using Internet Connection Sharing, a Vista PC can act as a "6to4" router, using the IPv4-based Internet as a whole as just a cloud to tunnel an IPv6 connection through, encapsulating the traffic with an IPv4 header. A complementary technology called "Teredo," part of Windows Vista, was designed as a last resort for IPv6 connectivity, allowing a PC behind a NAT to tunnel to another NAT-protected device across the Internet. "As more IPv4 NATs are upgraded to support 6to4 and IPv6 connectivity become ubiquitous, Teredo will be used less and less, until eventually it is not used at all," according to Microsoft.

That makes measurement of IPv6 traffic extremely difficult. According to the Amsterdam Internet eXchange, the amount of IPv6 traffic is just 0.1 percent of the total. But IPv6 traffic tunneled using IPv4 protocols could mean that much more is being used, just beneath the surface.

Some companies have already bit the bullet. Comcast, for example, has already rolled out IPv6 from its core backbone out to its cable modem termination systems in 2007. However, the project required four years, and is still ongoing. "The primary lesson from Comcast's transition to IPv6 is the importance of planning ahead," the OECD concluded.

In Three Years, the Internet Hits a Brick Wall  

Posted by M. Talha in

In an estimated three years or so, the Internet will run out of the IPv4 addresses that it is currently based upon, forcing a transition over to a next-generation IPv6 address scheme – or a halt to all new domains.

That prediction was made last month by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which told attendees of a worldwide meeting in South Korea that the current address space would run out in 2010 or 2011.

That estimate, in turn, was based upon a Web algorithm that pegs the date at which the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) will run out of unallocated Internet addresses, or about Jan. 18, 2011. After that, the estimate is that the first regional Internet registry (RIR), such as the American Registry for Internet Numbers would run out of addresses and be unable to find another on or about Jan. 5, 2012.

At that point, barring some other solution, the Web would essentially be limited to the existing number of domains and sub-domains. The shift to IPv6, however, is seen as a way to escape.

Web addresses such as PCMag.com translate to IP addresses like 96.17.8.27, the actual address for the server on the Internet; the Web address is simply an easier way to remember the numerical address, like 1-800-DOMINOS can be used to quickly call for a pizza.

The problem is that every router and server requires its own unique IP address. As more and more are added to the Internet, the available pool of IP addresses decreases. Gadgets like Microsoft's Zune, which includes a Wi-Fi connection, simply contribute to the "Internet of things" that also require their own IP addresses.

The 32-bit IPv4 address space allows for a theoretical 4.2 billion IP addresses. A 128-bit IPv6 address scheme allows for 2E128 addresses, or "340 billion billion billion billion" addresses. But neither scheme is compatible with the other, making the transition an extremely complicated matter.

In June, the OECD issued its Seoul Ministerial Declaration, a report and call to arms about the impact of changes to the Internet's structure, and their economic effects. "It also calls upon governments and industry to accelerate the transition from IPv4 to IPv6, thus providing a solution to the address space problem as we indeed risk falling short of internet addresses within 3 years, a situation which the "Internet of things" will further deteriorate," said Viviane Reding, a member of the European Commission responsible for Information Society and Media. "Three weeks ago, the European Commission actually set the target that 25% of European internet users should be able to connect to the IPv6 internet by 2010. We will be pushing for it, notably by encouraging public services and leading websites to move faster to IPv6."

The problem is that as the shortage of IPv4 issues becomes more broadly publicized, a "run" on the remaining addresses becomes a possibility.

"This is perhaps a very conservative projection of a date for the exhaustion of the current address allocation policies," the author of the "Potaroo" algorithm, Geoff Huston, who serves as the chief scientist of APNIC, the RIR overseeing Asia and Australia, wrote. "Its [sic] probable that an industry response to this forthcoming situation is one of increasing levels of demand for the remaining unallocated address resources, given the impetus of a "last chance rush" on the registries. If such a run on the unallocated address pool eventuates, and industry players bring forward their requests for additional address space, it is possible that this unallocated address pool exhaustion date may occur sooner than the model studied would apparently indicate."

A corresponding study by Tony Hain of Cisco in 2003 concluded that the IPv4 address pool would be exhausted anywhere between 2009 and 2016, depending upon the forecast model chosen. He added one caveat, however: "Although a longer lifetime projection helps to avoid short-term panic, it can mislead people into believing there is substantial time to worry about this later, resulting in a much bigger problem when reality blindsides everyone sooner than they expected." Next: What to Do?